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Jobs Disappearing at Accelerating Rate – Is Yours at Risk?

Nearly everyone agrees the world will look different in years to come.  For many, the future has arrived. Robots and other forms of automation are not just destroying jobs at an accelerating pace but driving many occupations into extinction.

For nearly 15 years I warned of a Perfect Labor Storm, a time when work, the workplace, and consequently the workforce would see revolutionary change at an unprecedented pace. I wasn’t the first to forecast the changes we are experiencing now. I wasn’t the loudest voice either. But I was a steady, reliable messenger of a daunting prediction that unfortunately has come true.

I did however underestimate the changes on two accounts.

First, my use of the word “storm” apparently erred on the side of conservatism. While disruptive and often devastating, storms pass. People pick up the pieces and move on. Life is disrupted but not devastated.  Most people go back to living the way it used to be.

But what we are experiencing is not a storm but a “Job Apocalypse”.

Up until now technological progress produces two competing effects: job destruction and increased production. While new technology often replaces workers, the new technology improved productivity, which tends to lower the cost of production, which creates more demand, which creates new jobs.

These new jobs for the most part require new skills. The skills are typically acquired through more advanced education. Workers who acquired the education and skills have been rewarded with good jobs and higher wages.

At least that’s the way it has worked for the past several centuries.

But now technological progress threatens to alter the course of history.

Oxford University researchers Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne in their daunting landmark study give a taste of what’s to come. They estimate that 47 percent of U.S. jobs are at “high risk” of being taken over by robots in the next decade or two. And we’re not talking about just production jobs requiring more low-level skills.  Affected jobs include accountants, physicians, lawyers, and architects Loan officers, tax preparers, paralegals, and even roofers are at risk. Even more susceptible are low-skill-level jobs such as retail cashiers and salespeople, telemarketers, toll booth operators, and postal workers. Even professional drivers (truck, bus, taxi) are at risk. (If you are suspicious, then you are ignoring how the Google car is changing transportation.)

They wrote in their paper:

Our model predicts that most workers in transportation and logistics occupations, together with the bulk of office and administrative support workers, and labor in production occupations, are at risk… More surprisingly, we find that a substantial share of employment in service occupations, where most US job growth has occurred over the past decades (Autor and Dorn, 2013), are highly susceptible to computerization.

robots taking jobWhile the trend in recent decades has been towards a hollowing out of “middle-skill” jobs and an increase in low-paying service sector jobs and high-paying, highly educated jobs, Frey and Osborne expect that automation in the future will mainly substitute for “low-skill and low-wage” jobs.

What’s most troubling about all these changes are that advances in technology and computerization have outpaced our ability to find new uses for labor. In other words, automation has replaced people at a faster rate than demand for products and services has grown meaning the demand for skills has lagged. Since the number of workers with higher education degrees has exploded, many of these higher-skilled workers are accepting jobs traditionally performed by less educated, low-skilled workers.  The minimally-education, low-skill worker is subsequently pushed further down or out of the workforce entirely.

No one knows for sure what the careers of the future will look like. But the people at the cutting edge of workplace and workforce trends are already watching old jobs disappear at an accelerating rate.

Sources:

The Future of Jobs

Jobs That Will Be Lost to Robots

 

More about Moms Married with Children

married with childrenMoms married with children hardly fit the Peg Bundy type portrayed in the hit TV show Married with Children.  Here are more stats following a recent post about how Stay-at-Home Moms are presenting yet another challenge in employer’s quest to find skilled workers.

Almost three in 10 mothers with children under 18 living with them are stay-at-home moms.

  • 20 percent of all married mothers with children under 18 stay home — half what it was in 1970.
  • One in five children in the United States today lives with a stay-at-home mother married to a working husband. In 1970, 41 percent of children did.

Married mothers accounted for much of the increase in total labor force participation during the post-World War II period (1946-2000).

  • In 1948, only about 17 percent of married mothers were in the labor force
  • In 1985, 61 percent of married mothers were working or looking for work
  • By 1995, their labor force participation rate had reached 70 percent.

Married mothers aged 25 and older with infants are well educated, on average.

  • Nearly half (47 percent) had a college degree, compared with 35 percent of all married mothers of that age group.  
  • Another 26 percent of married mothers of infants had completed 1 to 3 years of college, compared with 29 percent of all mothers. 
  • After peaking at 71 percent in 1997, the participation rate of those women married with infants and holding a college degree had fallen by about 9 percentage points by 2000.
  • In comparison, the participation rate for mothers with less than a high school diploma fell by 8 percentage points, as did the rate for those with some college.

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Pew Research Center

Stay-At-Home Moms: Another Skilled Worker Hurdle?

At a time when skilled labor is scarce, stay at home moms point to yet another challenge that management faces when it comes to filling open positions, according to new research from Pew Research Center.

stay at home MomAlmost three in 10 mothers with children under 18 living with them are stay-at-home moms. In the past that would not have been such a big deal. But the education of women has risen dramatically in the post-World War II period. For example:

  • Among all women aged 25 and older, the proportion with at least 1 year of college more than tripled, rising from about 15 percent in 1960 to 53 percent in 2005.  (Among men, this proportion almost tripled, going from 18 percent to 53 percent.) 
  • The participation rate for women with a college degree rose from about 57 percent in 1962 to 73 percent in 2005, while the rate for women with some college (but not a bachelor’s degree) went from 42 percent to 67 percent.

As more jobs require advanced skills and nearly all new jobs require at least some post-secondary education, companies can ill afford to lose even a single skilled worker. But over the past few decades, a critical trend went largely unnoticed. It is now having a major impact on recruitment:

There are more women than men that have been going to and graduating from college.

Women now enroll in greater numbers than men in both undergraduate and graduate institutions. Women age 25 to 34 are now more likely than men of that same age group to have attained a college degree, reversing the norm of 40 years ago.

Among women age 25 to 64 in the labor force, 36 percent held college degrees in 2009, compared to 11 percent in 1970 – nearly 325% increase. In contrast, the share of men with a college degree increased by one-half. By 2019, women are projected to account for nearly 60 percent of total undergraduate enrollment.

Over the same period, the proportion of women workers with less than a high school diploma fell from 34 percent to 7 percent.

The trend in graduate school is similar. In 2008, women accounted for 59 percent of graduate school enrollment. As recently as 1998 more doctoral degrees were conferred to men than to women. A decade later, more doctoral degrees were conferred to women than men.

With more women than men holding the skills needed to do today’s skilled labor, stay-at-moms pose a significant threat for business. 

One industry impacted tremendously by women is healthcare. At one time, men were the doctors, women were the nurses.

In 1965, only 8 percent of medical school students were women. By 2012, nearly half of all students and graduates were women.

Companies need to figure out a way to lure these moms back to work with personalized and innovative compensation, benefits, and perk packages. Flexibility and telecommuting for many of these moms will be more important than money. 

But while those changes may be a magnet for the new mom, it creates another management problem – how do you treat these moms differently than your male workers, your young, unmarried Millennials, and your Baby Boomers who are looking to cut back but still keep working?

Enticing these married with children women back to work will not be that easy.  Married women with college degrees typically have husbands with similar levels of education. These husbands are likely to be earning good paychecks, providing their wives with options about whether to work after the birth of children. So while these college-educated mothers invested heavily in their careers, they are often more able to be leave the work force, at least temporarily.

Unemployed Workers – Unlucky Victims or Just Not Ready for Jobs?

Last week I wrote an article titled Why Many Unemployed Workers Will Never Get Jobs .It was published on the Huffington Post. It kicked up quite a firestorm with over 4,600 Likes on Facebook, nearly 1200 emails, and as of this writing, almost 500 comments.

paradigmaIn the article I wrote that “we have a huge problem on our hands that runs much deeper than the unemployment figures reveal.” Based on the passionate, angry, and sometimes profanity-laced comments I received, I touched a nerve. I underestimated the problem – it’s much bigger than huge! 

Comments ranged from “Ira Wolfe is a stupid motherf—-r” to “best article ever published on Huff Post.” Many people – largely unemployed and under-employed workers – seem to have perfected the art of character assassination and finger pointing. They may not have work skills but they sure can write a mean letter.

More specifically and one purpose of the article, I wrote about why traditional job training programs wasn’t working. In fact, all many programs seems to do is establish false hope and promises, a situation confirmed by many of the responders,.

The problem with traditional job skill training in many cases is that you can walk a horse to water but you can’t make it drink. Far too many workers — employed and unemployed — don’t seem interested in finding water on their own. They want and expect someone else to find the water, make sure the journey isn’t too arduous, and get someone to pay for it.

Hundreds of people took offense to this. Their push-back only confirmed that I was right – to a point. It wasn’t that they wouldn’t drink but many can’t find the well on their own.  

To be fair many comments opened my eyes to circumstances I had not considered. There is old saying that goes something like this – when you listen, two people learn.

Here is one thing I learned – some unemployed workers simply got the short end of the stick. They shared personal stories how they went back to school to get a certificate or degree at their own expense. That took the initiative and made the investment of time and money to better themselves.

Unfortunately they were victims twice-over. Someone changed the rules mid-stream and didn’t tell them. 

First they were either laid off, terminated, outsourced, downsized, or stuck in a stagnant wage job. They did the right thing or at least thought they were doing it by going back to school. But many unemployed were sold a bill of goods. Despite personal investment and hardship, nothing changed for them except many are deeper in debt, thanks to receiving training or education for jobs that are headed to the low-wage dumper or toward extinction.

The only beneficiaries in many job training programs are the schools, organizations, and the trainers.

Many unemployed were duped to believe that a certification or degree guaranteed a good paying job…or any job for that matter. With slow job creation, an overabundance of “overqualified” workers, and a lack of skills required for more competitive wage jobs, these workers feel like they have “sucker” written across their foreheads. The problem is that the current labor and job market is anything but traditional and many programs still teach like nothing has changed.

Aside from these workers and many with similar bad luck stories, I’m sticking to the premise of the article:

Thanks to years of economic prosperity, government entitlements, union contracts and most recently a generation of helicopter parents, many workers from aging Baby Boomers to the young adults known as Millennials don’t have the motivational skills to achieve their own success, to keep themselves safe, to avoid a personal crisis, and to get themselves out of a jam.

Many readers took what I wrote and inferred that I called them lazy and unmotivated. That’s just not true. I never wrote that many of the unemployed were lazy and unmotivated. I did write that many lacked the skills to get a job or switch careers in today’s world and I don’t mean just the technical skills and experience.

When I refer to motivational skills, I mean basic life skills. The skills we used to learn as children that carried us through the trials and tribulations of adulthood. Children learned to entertain themselves. When we fell, we were told to get up, dust ourselves off, and try again. We learned there was a difference between winning and losing. Just playing the game was an opportunity, not a guarantee.

Joblessness is a very complex problem. Many people are caught between the proverbial rock and hard place. With outdated skills, homes “under-water,” aging parents, rising tuition, and a host of other factors, jobs may be available but the workers are just in the wrong place at the wrong time. It’s an incredibly tough cycle to break when you’re poor and/or homeless, too.

Despite popular belief, I wasn’t blaming the unemployed and under-employed for their predicament. I was merely stating the fact that many workers -both employed and unemployed – lack the basic skills to create their own success and future. The lack of skills doesn’t make them bad, lazy or unmotivated people. They are just dependent on other people to create their future and rescue them. Ironically that’s a motivational skill too which has worked well for decades, if not longer.

The solution offered by many people is run faster and harder, juggle multiple jobs, and make an honest effort to get ahead. Unfortunately more activity and intensity does necessarily translate to a good paying “permanent” full time job in this hyper-competitive, dynamic, fast paced, complex workforce.

It comes down to this. Knowing where, when, and how to find a job opportunity these days and competing successfully for it is a skill many workers lack. Job search is no longer as simple as applying and interviewing these days. You don’t get paid for submitting a hundred resumes and performing well in interviews. There is only viable metric of success when it comes to getting offered a good paying job these days – you’re hired! Joblessness and unemployment is not always due to a lack of initiative or effort or motivation. It’s the person’s inability to escape a bad situation and build a new future.

(Companies aren’t blameless either. Many managers lack the skill required to find, identify, and retain talent when they see it or have it. Even when the right person with the right skills shows up on their doorstop, they often times don’t see recognize it until it’s too late.)

Read the full article Why Many Unemployed Workers Will Never Get Jobs here. 

Free PDF – What Job Won’t Return

What’s Up with the Attitude of Millennials These Days?

Confusion Millennial over his futureThere are few places I go that I don’t hear comments about the attitudes of Millennials. It is also the most common question I hear from clients these days.  It is so common in fact that it prompted an interview with the senior editor of Chief Learning Office magazine a few weeks ago. The article was just published last week. The editor asked me about what makes each generation different, if Baby Boomers felt the same way when they were young or have times changed, what Millennials want, how the generations respond to technology and more.

So let me give you a sneak peek into the interview.

Here’s a hard cold fact and yet a very simple but critical premise: the attitudes of each generation are different, not good or bad. (Yes, individuals in each generation have good and bad attitudes but collectively they just see the world a bit differently than their predecessors and successors.)

Without a doubt each older generation has viewed its younger successor as brash and uppity. Younger generations always look upward and see gray and staunchy.

But despite this loud roar of near-apocalyptic differences in attitudes between generations cited by the media, research is on the fence whether these differences are based on one generation’s perspective defined by events or concerns expressed by all generations at similar states in life and career.

Regardless of the cause, the notion that one generation’s attitude is good or bad is just bad business. Yes, there are individuals in each generation that have good and bad attitudes about work. But bad attitudes don’t infect an entire generation of tens of millions of people. In fact, I’m often embarrassed by the negative and disparaging attitudes of many of my peers (baby boomers) toward work and excited by the holistic and fresh outlook that millennials offer.

There is no question that historical events such as Pearl Harbor, landing on the Moon, the death of key leaders and great recessions imprint indelible messages in the minds of young people. These messages shape the lives of these young adults as they enter adulthood. They influence how they see the world and how the world sees them. But they don’t create an entire generation with a single universal attitude. We’re talking about millions of humans, not robots. Society and the marketplace that responds to these life-changing events likely have a greater impact on the life and times of each generation than the events themselves. For example, the Internet surely had a more pervasive and permanent effect on how a generation of young people will live and work as adults than the terrorist attack on 9/11.

Want to read more about the Millennials, technology, work and what companies need to do to recruit, hire, and retain the generation that will soon make up 75 percent of the workforce?Click here.

Download a free chapter about What You Need to Know About the Millennial Generation  from Geeks, Geezers, and Googlization

U.S. Unemployment Stats: Fantasy vs. Reality

The December 2013 Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Unemployment Report showed that only 74,000 people found new jobs. Of these, 31,000 were part-time. Yet, the U.S. unemployment rate fell from 7 to 6.7 percent. You ask, how can this happen?

The answer lies in the fact that about 500,000 Americans quit looking for a job. They removed themselves from the BLS unemployment rate calculations.

What is going on? The U.S. stock market has been booming. Interest rates remain very low. Federal Reserve economists and Wall Street pundits keep telling us that the recession is over. If you don’t have a job, however, this seems pure fantasy. The share of the U.S. population available to work is now at a 35 year low – a 62.8 percent labor participation rate. This is the same rate as in 1978. It includes all people who are not infirm, in the military, or locked up somewhere. These workers are either employed or still seeking a job today.

At the same time those workers not in the labor force, or who have given up looking, rose in December 2013 by 525,000 persons to 91.8 million! If this increase had been zero, the U.S. unemployment rate would have remained unchanged at 7 percent! Those BLS numbers don’t lie, they just distort reality.

There are those economists and pundits who claim that the swelling number of Americans who have dropped out of the labor force is due to the massive number of baby boomer retirements and more young people going to school. These claims lack credible proof.

A comparison of BLS labor participation rates from 1999 to 2013 for different age ranges shows a dramatic workplace shift is underway. There has been a major decline in workers under 45, while there has been a significant increase in the percent of people over 60 who are at work.

U.S. workers aged 30 to 59, the prime age group for employment, comprise 50 percent of the potential workforce. They account for most of the decline in the U.S. labor pool since 2007 and 75 percent of the decline for 2013. If you zero in on workers aged 45 to 54, their labor participation rate is 79.2 percent, the lowest since 1988! “It just keeps dropping and dropping,” states Julia Coronado, chief U.S. economist at BNP Paribas. “It’s depressing, as it’s not just older workers retiring.”

At the end of 2007, when the recession began, 66 percent of Americans were at work. To return to that level in 2014, 8 million Americans would have to be added to the workforce. If this occurred, the current U.S. unemployment rate would rise to 11.2 percent!

All of the above suggests that the pool of potential U.S. workers is substantially higher than the BLS unemployment rate indicates. What is keeping these workers on the sidelines?  It’s clear to me: A growing labor mismatch between vacant jobs and the skills of unemployed American workers. It’s a structural unemployment problem has existed for the past decade, and it is now becoming more critical.

An Accenture 2013 Skills and Employment Trends Survey of 400 U.S. executives found that 46 percent are concerned that they will not be able to find workers with the needed skills. A 2014 McKinsey survey of business and education providers in the European Union found that about a third reported difficulties finding workers with the right skills.

Clearly the U.S. education to employment pipeline is broken. There are approximately 7.2 million vacant jobs in the United States that currently can’t be filled. My latest published research on the skills-jobs mismatch, Future Jobs: Solving the Employment and Skills Crisis (Praeger, 2013), estimates that the lack of workers with appropriate skills for a 21st-century workforce in the United States, and in nations worldwide, could result in 14 to 25 million vacant U.S. jobs by 2020. Future Jobs, however, does point to reform efforts underway in regions of the United States, as well as overseas, that have the potential to substantially alter this dire scenario, if they are rapidly brought to scale.

The realities of this skills-jobs collapse will trigger a major economic crisis for many Americans. As the pain increases, we can expect a rising public demand for meaningful action by business and government at the regional and state levels to fix the jobs and skills disconnect, instead of the current fantasy that the U.S. unemployment problem is ameliorating.

          

Edward E. Gordon is an internationally recognized researcher, author, speaker, and consultant on the future of America’s and the world’s workforces. His previous books include: Winning the Global Talent Showdown, The 2010 Meltdown: Solving the Employment and Skills Crisis, Skill Wars, and FutureWork. Ed can be contacted at 760.346.6364 or imperialcorp@juno.com.

Working From Home: Is it the future?

Working From Home -- Is It The Future? by Staff.com
Staff.com – Connecting Great Companies with Global Talent

10 Facts About Aging and Baby Boomers You Should Know

1. January 1, 2011 – The very first Baby Boomers turned 65. social security for baby boomers

2.  For the next 15 years, every day more than 10,000 Baby Boomers will reach the age of 65.

3.  Baby boomers, defined as persons born between 1946 and 1964, number 76.4 million in 2012 and account for about one-quarter of the population.

4. December 31, 2029 – The last of the boomers will turn 65. The 65+ population segment is projected to double to 71.5 million by 2030 and grow to 86.7 million by 2050.

5. Currently, just 13% of Americans are ages 65 and older. The age-65-and-older population grew 18 percent between 2000 and 2011 to 41.4 million senior citizens.

6. The population age 65 and older is expected to more than double between 2012 and 2060, from 43.1 million to 92.0 million. In 2060, when the youngest of them would be 96 years old, they are projected to number around 2.4 million and represent 0.6 percent of the total population.

7. The older population (65 and older) would represent just over one in five U.S. residents by the end of the period, up from one in seven today.

8. The percentage of the U.S. population that is 60-to-64 will increase from 5.4% in 2010 to 6.2% in 2020, while the population aged 65 to 74 will grow from 6.9% to 9.5%.

9. In 2010, each retiree’s Social Security benefit is paid for by approximately 3.3 U.S. workers. By 2025, it is projected that there will be approximately two U.S. workers for each retiree.

10. By 2015 Generation Y will outnumber Baby Boomers in the workforce. By 2020, Generation Y will account for 45% of all U.S. workers. Gen X and Gen Y will make up 65% of our workforce by 2020.

Source: Department of Health and Human Services, census.gov, and Administration on Aging, Bureau of Labor Statistics

Success Performance Solutions President Forecasts “Worsening Perfect Labor Storm”

Small Business Hiring Slow – Time to Worry?

It’s well known that job growth has been lacking in this economic recovery. One reason for the disappointment is that small businesses aren’t adding workers like they used to.

Small firms account for about half of GDP and employ about half the workforce. Small business has led us out of recent recessions and has been the driver of our economy for the past few decades.  But Goldman Sachs economists recently found small firms (defined as businesses employing less than 1-49 workers) have indeed underperformed medium and large companies.

These trends also contrast with the last business cycle of the early 2000s. Small firms barely lost any jobs in the 2001 recession and then outpaced medium and large firms in the expansion.

Goldman identified several reasons unique to small-company hiring.

First, small firms account for a disproportionately large share of construction jobs and those payrolls collapsed during the Great Recession.

Second, labor markets have seen a structural shift toward large company jobs. For instance, Goldman notes large companies’ share of retail employment has jumped 16 percentage points from the early 1990s to 64% today. Many mom-and-pop stores can’t compete against big box retailers.

Finally, large-business employment has tended to be more sensitive to the business cycle. When the U.S. recovery strengthens, big firms benefit a bit more.

The lag in small business hiring is also confirmed by ADP private sector numbers. Payrolls at private firms with less than 50 employees have increased 4.7% since the end of the recession through August, medium-size firms (50-499 employees) are up 6.1% and large firms (more than 1,000 workers) have increased payrolls by 7.4%.